Friday, April 27, 2012

For first time since Great Depression, more Mexicans leave US than enter (?)

I am pretty skeptical about this report.  How do they know?  Even in recession, the USA is a lot better place to be than Mexico

A four-decade tidal wave of Mexican immigration to the United States has receded, causing a historic shift in migration patterns as more Mexicans appear to be leaving the United States for Mexico than the other way around, according to a report from the Pew Hispanic Center.

It looks to be the first reversal in the trend since the Depression, and experts say that a declining Mexican birthrate and other factors may make it permanent.

“I think the massive boom in Mexican immigration is over and I don’t think it will ever return to the numbers we saw in the 1990s and 2000s,” said Douglas Massey, a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University and co-director of the Mexican Migration Project, which has been gathering data on the subject for 30 years.

Nearly 1.4 million Mexicans moved from the United States to Mexico between 2005 and 2010, double the number who did so a decade earlier. The number of Mexicans who moved to the United States during that period fell to less than half of the 3 million who came between 1995 and 2000.

The trend could have major political consequences, underscoring the delicate dance by the Republican and Democratic parties as they struggle with immigration policies and court the increasingly important Latino vote.

Illegal immigration has emerged as one of the most emotional political issues in the country — one that dominated much of the Republican presidential contest and has proven complicated for President Obama.

Mitt Romney has courted conservatives with aggressive anti-illegal immigration rhetoric. But the GOP presidential hopeful has said in recent days that he wants to build ties with Hispanics, many of whom have chafed at his statements, and the new immigration trends could offer him a chance to soften his stance.

Obama has been criticized by immigrant advocates for stepped-up deportation policies that analysts have said were partly responsible for the decreasing flow of Mexicans into the United States. The trend could offer the president a political silver lining: the chance to take credit for a policy success that, his aides have said in the past, should persuade Republicans to embrace a broad immigration overhaul plan.

According to the report, the Mexican-born population, which had been increasing since 1970, peaked at 12.6 million in 2007 and has dropped to 12 million since then.

The reversal appears to be a result of tightened border controls, a weak U.S. job and housing construction market, a rise in deportations and a decline in Mexican birthrates, said the study, which used U.S. and Mexican census figures and Mexican government surveys. Arrests of illegal immigrants trying to enter the United States have also dropped precipitously in recent years.

Whether the reversal is temporary or permanent, it could have significant implications for the United States. Many Mexican immigrants work in agriculture and construction.

One in 10 people born in Mexico live in the United States, and more than half entered illegally. Most live in California and Texas; about 120,000 live in the Washington region.


Court sympathy for tough US immigration laws

There are signs the United States supreme court is going to side in favour of Arizona's tough immigration law being challenged by the Obama administration.

In a setback for the president, several justices have voiced support for the state's effort to crack down on illegal immigration, appearing to reject arguments it was an encroachment on federal responsibility.

"I felt very confident as I walked out of there that Arizona has a right, and I as governor was somewhat assured that I had a right, to protect the citizens of Arizona," governor Jan Brewer said.

The ruling is likely to set a precedent with Arizona the first of half a dozen states to pass laws allowing police to check the immigration status of anyone they detain and suspect of being illegally in the country.

Mexico and 17 other countries have also filed arguments with the court opposing the law, saying the delegation of authority over such matters to individual states threatens bilateral relations with Washington.

Chief justice John Roberts said the federal government's arguments could not centre on the civil rights issues but rather on its claim under the constitution to exclusive authority in immigration matters.

He then went on to suggest the law's most controversial provisions were not an effort to over-ride federal law, but to support it.

Justice Anthony Kennedy, often the swing vote on the court, said Arizona was "cooperating in implementing federal law".

The court's conservative majority has been strengthened in this case because Justice Elena Kagan, who served as solicitor general under Mr Obama, recused herself, leaving only eight justices to hear the matter.

More than 1,000 protesters outside the court lashed out against provisions of the law they say encourages ethnic profiling.

"God, give us the courage to stand up against draconian immigration laws," Reverend Gabriel Salguero, president of the National Latino Evangelical Coalition, said in a prayer.

The court is expected to hand down its decision in June.


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