Thursday, June 6, 2013
Recent posts at CIS below
See here for the blog. The CIS main page is here.
1. Who Voted in 2012? Results from the Census Bureau’s November Voting and Registration Supplement
2. William Finnegan of the New Yorker Defends the Facts on Immigration and Wages – His Version, Anyway
3. Whistling Past the Fiscal Graveyard
4. MSNBC'S Alex Wagner Visits the Border, Delivers Nothing
5. NY Times Prints Apples vs. Oranges Study on Medicare Costs and Income
6. "Dog Logic" and the Senate's Immigration Bill
7. Proof that Senate Bill Is Comprehensive: Visa Pork!
8. Trust the Obama Administration on Immigration? Caveat Emptor
Cutting illegal immigration essential if the present Australian government is to have a hope of survival
JULIA Gillard has been warned that the government's strategy to win votes through its big-picture education and disability policies is being swamped by community anger over asylum-seekers, as senior Labor figures all but write off enough seats in three states to guarantee Tony Abbott a comfortable victory.
In a meeting of Labor MPs described by some as "surreal, with a feeling of resignation", the Prime Minister was given an ultimatum by a key supporter, western Sydney MP Laurie Ferguson, to turn the public debate on asylum-seekers in Labor's favour or the government would be "dead" in the party's heartland.
As Newspoll showed that Labor continues to trail the Coalition by 16 points on a two-party-preferred basis, and a separate poll showed Labor facing a swing of more than 15 per cent that put it on track to lose the safe Victorian seat of Isaacs, held by Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus, a senior source said the party had told MPs in the marginal Victorian seats of Corangamite, Deakin and La Trobe they were "on their own".
The Opposition Leader moved to play down expectations of a Coalition landslide.
"I've always likened winning an election from opposition to climbing Mount Everest, and we are 102 paces from the summit but those 102 paces are the hardest paces of all and one slip, even at that late stage, can be very, very dangerous, even fatal," he said. "So I take nothing for granted."
Mr Ferguson, whose seat of Werriwa is considered in danger, yesterday demanded the Prime Minister get personally involved in the refugee debate and confront Mr Abbott on the issue, warning "unless you take this head on, we are dead in western Sydney".
Later, after a meeting of the Labor caucus, Mr Ferguson said the refugee issue was undermining Labor's key policies such as school improvement and DisabilityCare.
"It is so central it is blocking out everything else," Mr Ferguson said. He said he was concerned there was a feeling in the Labor caucus that the issue would go away but this was not the case.
Last night, Mr Ferguson said Labor had abandoned the field and the Prime Minister needed to explain that there were no easy options on the issue for either side of politics.
Ms Gillard needed to speak in "common language" and explain what the regional solution meant.
Aside from asylum-seekers, the caucus meeting also heard concerns from Mr Rudd and former resources minister Martin Ferguson, a Rudd supporter, about the government's attacks on 457 visa rorts.
Mr Rudd asked Immigration Minister Brendan O'Connor about the number of breaches, while Mr Ferguson asked for regional and state breakdowns. However, other caucus sources said other MPs urged Mr O'Connor to take a tougher line on foreign workers.
Some Labor sources say the government's vote is holding up reasonably well in the inner city but is being punished in the suburbs. If this is repeated at the election, it will spark a debate about how to reconcile progressive inner-city issues with more conservative suburban issues.
Posted by jonjayray at 6:34 PM