Immigration Watch International (2): Do we really need more immigrant workers?

Friday, February 3, 2023

Do we really need more immigrant workers?

Many commentators and media reports have called for more immigration to make up for the slowdown in new arrivals that occurred during the pandemic. Immigrant workers are supposedly “missing” from the job market, creating a labor “shortage.”

In reality, the latest data shows that the number of immigrant workers is well above pre-pandemic levels. To the extent that workers are “missing,” it is due to the decadeslong decline in the labor force participation rate — the share working or looking for work — of the U.S.-born. The decline is especially pronounced among less-educated men. This situation deprives the economy of workers and contributes to a host of social problems.

Of course, most working-age people not in the labor force are out of it for a good reason, including caring for children or attending school, but the long-term decline has little to do with such responsibilities. The falloff in labor force participation is associated with numerous undesirable outcomes such as substance abuse, welfare dependency, mental health issues, crime, family formation and early death.

Despite this decline and its associated pathologies, the media do not typically mention it when discussing the need for more workers, nor do Democratic and Republican politicians, who support allowing more immigrant workers in. They may be distracted by the deceptively low unemployment rate, which includes only those who are actively looking for work and not those who have dropped out of the labor force entirely. In any case, the willingness of elected officials to accept the argument that we need more immigrant workers illustrates an important fact: The availability of immigrant labor allows us to ignore the plight of all those on the economic sidelines.

We face a stark choice: Either we figure out how to get more working-age Americans back into jobs, or we allow more immigrants in and then try to deal with the social problems that low labor force participation exacerbates.

The latest data from November of this year shows that 2.1 million fewer U.S.-born workers were employed than in November 2019, before the pandemic. By contrast, the number of immigrants working, including those here illegally, was up 1.9 million over the same time period. If immigration has rebounded so much, why all the coverage of a supposed shortfall?

Part of the reason could be the much-published Census Bureau estimates showing migration was very low through mid-2021. But those figures are now out of date. Some media coverage also cites an analysis by UC-Davis economists Giovanni Peri and Reem Zaiour, who argue that the pandemic slowdown led to 1.7 million “missing” immigrant workers through June 2021. But their analysis focused on the working age in general, not actual workers, and their findings do not reflect the current reality. By November 2021, the number of immigrant workers was back to the 2019 level, and by November 2022, it greatly exceeded it.

Among the U.S.-born, labor force participation has not returned to pre-COVID levels. This is typical of past recessions in which the U.S.-born drop out of the labor force and do not fully return even when the economy strengthens. This long-term decline has been studied extensively, including by the Obama White House and the Federal Reserve. One of the best books on the subject is Nicolas Eberstadt’s “Men Without Work.”

In sum, the labor force participation rate of working-age men, excluding inmates, has declined steadily since the 1960s, particularly for those without a bachelor’s degree. This is true whether the working age is defined as 16 to 64, 20 to 64, or only those of “prime work-age,” 25 to 54. It has affected U.S.-born White, Black and Hispanic men. The rate for U.S.-born women generally increased until about 2000 but has declined since, again mainly among those without a bachelor’s degree.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jan/16/do-we-really-need-more-immigrant-workers/

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My other blogs. Main ones below:

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM)

http://antigreen.blogspot.com (GREENIE WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com/ (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://awesternheart.blogspot.com.au/ (THE PSYCHOLOGIST)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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Background

Postings from Brisbane, Australia by John Ray (M.A.; Ph.D.) -- former member of the Australia-Soviet Friendship Society, former anarcho-capitalist and former member of the British Conservative party.

Why is "La Raza" the one Spanish term that is NEVER translated in the American mass media? Because translating it would make it a lot less respectable. It means "THE RACE" -- The mixed Hispanic "race" of Mexico. Racism is fine South of the Rio Grande only, apparently.

The "line" of this blog is that immigration should be SELECTIVE. That means that:

1). A national government should be in control of it. The U.S. and U.K. governments are not but the Australian government has shown that the government of a prosperous Western country can be. Up until its loss of office in 2007, the conservative Howard government had all but eliminated illegal immigration. The present Leftist government has however restarted the flow of illegals by repealing many of the Howard government regulations.

2). Selectivity should be based on "the content of a man's character, not on the color of his skin", as MLK said. To expand that a little: Immigrants should only be accepted if they as individuals seem likely to make a positive net contribution to the country. Many "refugees" would fail that test: Muslims and Africans particularly. Educational level should usually be a pretty fair proxy for the individual's likely value to the receiving country. There will, of course, be exceptions but it is nonetheless unlikely that a person who has not successfully completed High School will make a net positive contribution to a modern Western society.

3). Immigrants should be neither barred NOR ACCEPTED solely because they are of some particular ethnic origin. Blacks are vastly more likely to be criminal than are whites or Chinese, for instance, but some whites and some Chinese are criminal. It is the criminality that should matter, not the race.

4). The above ideas are not particularly blue-sky. They roughly describe the policies of the country where I live -- Australia. I am critical of Australian policy only insofar as the "refugee" category for admission is concerned. All governments have tended to admit as refugees many undesirables. It seems to me that more should be required of them before refugees are admitted -- for instance a higher level of education or a business background.

5). Perhaps the most amusing assertion in the immigration debate is that high-income countries like the USA and Britain NEED illegal immigrants to do low-paid menial work. "Who will pick our crops?" (etc.) is the cry. How odd it is then that Australians get all the normal services of a modern economy WITHOUT illegal immigrants! Yes: Before the pandemic, you usually COULD buy a lettuce in Australia for a dollar or thereabouts. And Australia IS a major exporter of primary products.

6). I am a libertarian conservative so I reject the "open door" policy favoured by many libertarians and many Leftists. Both those groups tend to have a love of simplistic generalizations that fail to deal with the complexity of the real world. It seems to me that if a person has the right to say whom he/she will have living with him/her in his/her own house, so a nation has the right to admit to living among them only those individuals whom they choose.

I can be reached on jonjayray@hotmail.com -- or leave a comment on any post. Abusive comments will be deleted.

Immigration Watch International (2)

Friday, February 3, 2023

Do we really need more immigrant workers?

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