CIA Shocker: Ukraine, Venezuela Have Highest Rates of Net In-Migration in the World. So, why do our migrant-friendly policies continue?

I recently came across a CIA report that was a shocker: Of the three countries with the highest net in-migration—that is, the highest proportion of migrants entering compared to those leaving-- in the world, Ukraine is first and Venezuela is third. Why are a war-torn country and an economic basket case leading expat refuges like the British Virgin Islands (number 4), the Caymans (5), and Monaco (7) in terms of in-migration? And, more importantly, why are our migrant-friendly policies for Ukrainians and Venezuelans still in effect?

Before I continue, as the CIA explains: “Net migration rate compares the difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country during the year per 1,000 persons (based on midyear population)”. The higher the rate, the larger the number of proportional annual arrivals.
Ukraine

According to CIA estimates, Ukraine has a net migration rate of +36.5 per thousand population in 2024.

To put Ukraine’s net in-migration into context, the United States has the 38th highest net migration worldwide, with a net migration rate of +3 per 1,000 population, and the UK is 39th, with a net migration rate of +2.9 per thousand. The Cook Islands is dead-last, with a net migration rate of -25.1 per thousand.

According to a February report by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), more than 4.5 million Ukrainians have returned home, either from abroad or from internal displacement, since the Russian invasion of the country began in February 2022.

Ukraine still has a big upside when it comes to net in-migration, however. IOM explains that nearly 14 million Ukrainians—about a third of the country’s total population—fled their homes since the onset of fighting, and nearly 6.5 million Ukrainians remain refugees globally.

In 2022, the CIA placed Ukraine number 115 on its net-migration list, with a net migration rate of -.26 per thousand, and in 2023, it ranked number 116, with a net migration rate of -.27 per thousand. That outflow has apparently shifted despite the continued war.

CBS News reported in April that 236,000 Ukrainian nationals had been approved to come to the United States on “parole” under the Biden-Harris administration’s “Uniting for Ukraine” program, though interestingly only 187,000 of them had arrived through the end of March.

In addition, as per CBS: “Another 350,000 Ukrainians have arrived in the U.S. outside of the sponsorship process since the start of the Russian invasion, mainly through temporary visas, according to DHS.” Whether most of them intend to leave is anybody’s guess, but plainly a lot of formally displaced Ukrainians have deemed the country safe enough to return.
Venezuela

There are no such quasi-sunny IOM reports for Venezuela, however. The organization claims that:

    As of June 2024, more than 7,77 million Venezuelans are outside their country of origin, the second largest displacement in the world. Neighbouring countries are responding to the humanitarian and human mobility challenges presented by this situation with solidarity and hospitality, and have largely kept their doors open to Venezuelan migrants and refugees.

    The majority of migrants and refugees from Venezuela reside in the region (6,59 million as of June 2024). Among the largest host countries are Colombia (2,9 million), Peru (1,5 million), Brazil, Ecuador and Chile.

Notably absent from that IOM list of receiving countries is the United States.

In September 2023, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas redesignated Venezuela for “temporary protected status” (TPS), potentially making an additional 472,000 nationals of the country here eligible for “temporary” status, over and above the 242,700 Venezuelans who already had TPS under an earlier, March 2021, designation of the country (also by Mayorkas).

Last September, shortly after that redesignation, I described how the first TPS designation for Venezuela had driven a massive wave of illegal migration from the country:

    According to CBP records, its immigration officers encountered 2,787 Venezuelan nationals at the Southwest border in all of FY 2020, and 2,274 others between October 2021 (the first month of FY 2022) and February 2022 (which ended eight days before that designation took effect). That’s 5,061 in total.

    Those pre-TPS encounter statistics are representative of illegal Venezuelan migration into the United States compared to prior years. In FY 2019, Border Patrol agents apprehended 2,202 Venezuelans at the Southwest border, while in FY 2018, agents caught just 62 Venezuelans entering illegally there.

    All of this is to say that there really weren’t that many Venezuelans coming here illegally before the country was first designated for TPS.

    Since then? Between March 2021 and October of that year, CBP encountered 46,404 illegal Venezuelan migrants, more than 187,700 in FY 2022, and 168,000-plus in just the first 10 months of FY 2023.

Note that in addition to TPS, the Biden-Harris administration also created two extra-statutory programs to funnel Venezuelan nationals (among others) with no visas and no right to enter into the United States – “CHNV Parole” and the “CBP One app interview scheme” – in January 2023.

According to the DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics, through the end of June, more than 108,000 Venezuelans had been allowed to enter under CHNV Parole and an additional 144,500-plus of them had scheduled appointments at the Southwest border ports under the scheme using the CBP One app.

Despite those more than 252,500 parolees, Border Patrol agents still apprehended more than 297,000 other illegal Venezuelan border-crossers between February 2023 and the end of August 2024. It’s unknown how many of them were subsequently released, but if past administration releases are any guide, it’s safe to say more than a few were.

Accordingly, while the United States may not be housing as many Venezuelan migrants as Colombia is, we are giving Peru a run for its money.

That said, I’ll cut IOM a break for not including the United States on its list of neighboring countries that are harboring Venezuelan nationals, because this country isn’t anywhere near Venezuela.

In fact, by my estimation, Venezuelans must cross through six countries on their way here (Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico), all of which grant some form of asylum. It’s doubtful than many departing Venezuelans are taking advantage of those countries’ largesse, though, now that the United States has flung its doors open.

So, why does Venezuela have such a high estimated net migration rate? The Washington Post offered some answers in June:

    Three hundred thousand Venezuelans have returned to the South American nation, the government of authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro reported in January, more than 30,000 of them with the help of a repatriation program called Return to the Motherland.

    The dollarization of Venezuela’s economy has brought a boom in imported food and new restaurants, making the capital more appealing. But outside an elite bubble, the country is still beset by power shortages, insufficient running water, political instability and an inflation rate that reached 234 percent in 2022.

    Nonetheless, Venezuelans who have returned say it was the best option for them.

Note that Venezuela has had a high net-migration rate for quite a while. According to the CIA, the country had the third highest level of net migration in the world in both 2022 (14.22 new arrivals on balance per thousand) and in 2023 (13.55). The latest numbers are just continuing that trend.
Why Are the Administration’s Migrant Policies Continuing?

The CIA compiles such statistics to inform Washington decisionmakers, but DHS and the White House haven’t gotten the message from Langley about net migration into either Venezuela or Ukraine yet as they continue their migrant-friendly policies for nationals of those countries.

Looking at administration migrant programs like TPS, CHNV, and CBP One, you’d think there’s a huge flood of people out of Venezuela, not a line to get into the country. The same is true to a lesser degree of Ukraine, which is still in the midst of conflict while enjoying its high net-migration rate. Why does the CIA compute net migration figures if the administration ignores them? That may be the bigger question.

https://cis.org/Arthur/CIA-Shocker-Ukraine-Venezuela-Have-Highest-Rates-Net-InMigration-World

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