Wednesday, October 27, 2010

The Hispanic Vote in Next Week’s U.S. Federal Election

A Baseline to Judge Turnout on Nov. 2

Some commentators have argued that Hispanic turnout in the upcoming mid-term elections will be higher than usual, while others have argued that it will be lower. A new report from the Center for Immigration examines these claims and provides a means for evaluating them, based on data collected by the Census Bureau.

“The Hispanic Vote in the Upcoming 2010 Elections” is avaiable online. Among the findings:

* On average 31.8 percent of Hispanic citizens (18+) voted in the 2002 and 2006 midterm elections, compared to 48 percent of non-Hispanic whites and 42 percent of non-Hispanic blacks.

* The extent to which Hispanics differ from the historical average (31.8% ± 1.7), will be an indication of how energized they were in 2010.

* Polling of Hispanic voters indicates that immigration is not one of their most important issues.

* Only 28.2 percent of Hispanic voters in the 2008 election were immigrants themselves. Moreover, just 14.3 percent of Hispanic voters in 2008 lived in the same household as a non-citizen.

* The lack of direct personal experience with immigration may explain why the issue does not rank higher in importance to Hispanic voters.

* Based on past patterns we project that Hispanics will comprise 6.8 percent of the electorate in November 2010. This is a reduction from 7.4 percent in the 2008 presidential election, but is an increase from 5.8 percent in the last off-year election in 2006.

* The Hispanic share of the overall vote in 2010 is a more indirect measure of their enthusiasm because it partly depends on turnout among other groups. If Hispanic participation is average, but participation among non-Hispanic is above average, then the Hispanic share of the vote will be smaller even though their turn out was not unusually low.

* We project that Hispanics in Nov 2010 will comprise 14 percent of the total adult (18+) population and 9.3 percent of the adult citizen population.

* Hispanics comprise a much smaller percentage of voters than they do of the overall adult population because a large share (37.7 percent) of adult Hispanics is not citizens. Also Hispanic citizens register and vote at somewhat lower rates than other groups.

Methods and Data. The data for this analysis comes from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) collected by Census Bureau, which contains about 100,000 adults. The Voting and Registration supplement is conducted in November every other year after Election Day.

The above is a press release dated Oct. 26 from from Center for Immigration Studies. 1522 K St. NW, Suite 820, Washington, DC 20005, (202) 466-8185 fax: (202) 466-8076. Email: Contact: Steven A. Camarota,, (202) 466-8185. The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent research institution which examines the impact of immigration on the United States. The Center for Immigration Studies is not affiliated with any other organization

Obama authorizes additional 80,000 “refugees” to entry country

President Barack Hussein Obama, in a determination letter to Congress, has announced that he will allow an additional 80,000 immigrants – - mostly from Islamic countries – - to resettle in the United States during fiscal year 2011.

Mr. Obama says that the increase in Muslim immigrants “is justified by humanitarian concerns or is otherwise in the national interest.”

The following “goals” for new immigrants has been set as follows:

Africa ........................................15,000
East Asia ..................................19,000
Europe and Central Asia ................2,000
Latin America/Caribbean…..............5,500
Near East/South Asia….................35,500
Unallocated Reserve…....................3,000

Refugee Resettlement Watch and other organizations have expressed grave concern that Mr. Obama is allowing so many immigrants into the country while so many Americans remain out of work and living in poverty.

According to the US Department of Labor, 14.8 million Americans remain unemployed. 6.1 million have been out of work for 27 weeks or over. This figure has been challenged by the Union of the Unemployed who provide statistics that the actual number of unemployed Americans is 31 million.

The U. S. Census Bureau shows that the median household income for Americans has fallen to $49,777 – - a decline of 0.7% in the past year. One in seven Americans no longer can feed themselves. According to The Wall Street Journal, 14.3% of the American people live in abject poverty.

A refugee is defined by The US Department of Immigration and Naturalization as someone who has left one’s country due to persecution or a fear of persecution. This accounts for the sharp rise of Somali communities throughout the country.

However, the definition of refugee is ‘fudged’ in several cases. “Refugees” who have not left their country due to persecution, according to Mr. Obama’s determination letter, can still be called “refugees” if they are from Iraq, one of the Islamic countries of the former Soviet Union, or Cuba.

According to Section 413 (a) of the Immigration and Nationalities Act, the Office of Refugee Resettlement is required to submit an annual report to Congress on the activities of the refugees. The report is supposed to include the number who are on public welfare programs. But no report has forthcoming from the Office of Refugee Resettlement since 2007.


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