Dynamic Scoring on Immigration?

Holtz-Eakin ignores composition of immigrant population

Some advocates for the Gang of Eight immigration plan have argued that it will be a benefit public coffers based on the idea of “dynamic scoring” or “dynamic analysis”. Chief among them has been former McCain economic advisor and CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin. Mr. Holtz-Eakin lays out his argument in an opinion piece published by the American Action Forum, which he heads, and will testify on it before the Senate Judiciary Committee tomorrow.

The Center for Immigration Studies critique of his opinion piece is  here. Among the findings:
 
*    The central point of Holtz-Eakin’s “dynamic analysis” is to argue that immigration-induced population growth by itself will have a positive indirect impact on per-capita GDP, thereby benefiting public coffers.

*   The biggest weakness of his analysis is that he ignores the actual characteristics of immigrants generally and illegal immigrants in particular, factors which bear directly on their fiscal impact. This includes relatively high poverty, welfare use, lack of health insurance, and their more modest tax payments.

*    Holtz-Eakin ignores the research indicating that the education level of immigrants at arrival has direct bearing on their income, tax payments, use of public services, and their result net fiscal impact.

*    Holtz-Eakin ignores the economic literature showing that immigration does not significantly increase the per capita GDP or income of the existing population.

*    He also ignores the research that has studied the impact of population growth in developing countries. In general this shows that by itself population does not increase per capita GDP.

*    He also assumes away any congestion and resulting inefficiencies that seem likely with the population growth he advocates.

*    Holtz-Eakin also argues that immigration can rejuvenate our aging population, even though there is a large body of research showing immigration's impact on this issue is quite modest at best.

The above is a press release from from Center for Immigration Studies. 1522 K St. NW, Suite 820,  Washington, DC 20005, (202) 466-8185 fax: (202) 466-8076.  Email: center@cis.org. Contact: Marguerite Telford, 202-466-8185, mrt@cis.org.  The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent research institution which examines the impact of immigration on the United States.  The Center for Immigration Studies is not affiliated with any other organization
   
    




Gang of 8 Bill Doesn't Reflect Reality of U.S. Labor Market

U-6 jobless rate for citizens without a high school diploma was 29.8% in the 1st Quarter of 2013

The Senate immigration bill formally unveiled at this afternoon's news conference does not reflect the realities of the U.S. labor market, according to data compiled by the  Center for Immigration Studies.

The employment situation remains bleak for less-skilled Americans. Yet the bill, S. 744, gives virtually all of the 11-12 million illegal immigrants work authorization. Prior research indicates that at least three-fourths of illegal immigrants have no education beyond high school. Further, the bill creates a new guestworker program and expands family-based immigration for a number of years, both of which will increase the arrival of less-skill immigrants.

"Looking at the jobless numbers for the first three months of this year, it's hard to exaggerate the disconnect between Washington politicians and the realities of the country outside the Beltway," said Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies. "With so many American citizens looking for work or dropping out of the labor market altogether, the Senate immigration bill seems to come from a different time and place altogether."

In the first quarter of 2013 the standard measure of unemployment (referred to as U-3) shows that unemployment was 18.1 percent for American citizens without a high school diploma (all citizens, including naturalized immigrants). It was 10.3 percent for U.S. citizens with only high school education.

The broader measure of unemployment (referred to as U-6) was 29.8 percent for citizens without a high school education and 18.4 percent for those with only a high school education. The U-6 measure includes those who have had to settle for part-time jobs and those who want to work and have looked in the last year but not in the past four weeks.

All of these figures represent a massive deterioration in recent years. In 2007, U-3 and U-6 unemployment for less-educated citizens was roughly 5 to 10 percentage points lower.

The total number of less-educated citizens (ages 18 to 65) not working in the first quarter of this year is 27.8 million, up from 24 million in the first quarter of 2007 and 22.2 million in the first quarter of 2000. These individuals are either unemployed or out of the labor market entirely.

In total (for all education levels), there are 55.4 million adult citizens ages 18 to 65 currently not working, up from 44.4 million in same quarter of 2007 and 38.1 million in 2000.

All of the above figures come from the public use files of the January, February, and March Current Population Survey for 2013, 2007, and 2000. The files can be found at the Census Bureau’s Dataferret web site: http://dataferrett.census.gov/

The above is a press release from from Center for Immigration Studies. 1522 K St. NW, Suite 820,  Washington, DC 20005, (202) 466-8185 fax: (202) 466-8076.  Email: center@cis.org. Contact: Marguerite Telford, 202-466-8185, mrt@cis.org.  The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent research institution which examines the impact of immigration on the United States.  The Center for Immigration Studies is not affiliated with any other organization